DES MOINES, Iowa – After months of rampant speculation and frenzied campaigning, Republican voters will weigh in for the first time Monday afternoon on who should be the party’s 2024 presidential nominee.
Although Iowa provides just 1.6% of the delegates to be awarded at the Republican National Convention in July, the Hawkeye State has developed an uncanny reputation for separating contenders from pretenders.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Iowa Caucus.
What is the Iowa Caucus?
Unlike primary elections, where voters simply go to the polls and cast personal ballots at booths, Iowans gather across the state in local “caucuses” to choose candidates.
The specific rules of these meetings vary from place to place, but each will have at least two items on the agenda — holding a binding vote for the Republican presidential candidate and choosing delegates to attend the county Republican convention later this year, the first step in choosing delegates to attended the national GOP convention in Milwaukee.
At each caucus, a speech will be made on behalf of each major candidate before the vote is taken by secret ballot, usually by writing names on a blank piece of paper.
Donald Trump still has a big lead in Iowa. AFP via Getty Images
To participate in the caucus, voters must be 18 by the Nov. 5 general election. There is no allowance for absentee voting, except among a handful of military and overseas voters.
Only registered Republicans can participate in Monday’s caucus, however, Iowa allows voters to register or change their party affiliation on caucus night.
Because of the public nature of caucuses, Iowa presents a unique logistical challenge for presidential campaigns, which recruit volunteer caucus captains to help ensure their supporters brave the weather to make their voices heard.
What time does the Iowa Caucus start?
Republican caucuses convene across the state at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. Eastern).
Why Iowa first?
After the contentious 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, party leaders decided to make their nominating process more transparent, in part by spreading the tables in each state.
Because Iowa awards delegates through a lengthy process of precinct caucuses, district and county conventions and statewide conventions, officials decided to start with the earliest of any state.
The 1972 Democratic caucus was Iowa’s first primary contest in the modern campaign era, but the state gained national prominence in 1976, when Jimmy Carter unexpectedly won the most support on the Democratic side.
In that year’s Republican caucus, which was also held before any other state, former California Governor Ronald Reagan was within two percentage points of surprising incumbent President Gerald Ford, beginning a long battle for the nomination all the way to the convention in Kansas City.
Nikki Haley, 2024 US Presidential Candidate, delivers a speech at the “Pick Nikki Countdown to Caucus” event in Adel, Iowa, USA, on January 14, 2024. Kyle Mazza/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Are Iowa Caucus winners usually the Republican nominee?
Nope.
The GOP has held nine contested caucuses in Iowa since 1976. Of those nine winners, four have gone on to secure the nomination. They are Ford in 1976, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2020.
For George HW Bush in 1980, Dole in 1988, Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, and Ted Cruz in 2016, the Iowa victory proved to be a false dawn for their campaigns.
This year, the dynamic in Iowa is completely different, with the former president running to reclaim the office he lost four years earlier for the first time in 132 years.
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Who will win the Iowa Caucus?
It would be amazing if Trump didn’t come out on top Monday night, as polls have consistently pegged him as the frontrunner in Iowa since he declared his candidacy in November 2022.
In fact, the most tension on Monday may come from the race for second place between former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Another benchmark to watch is whether Trump, 77, receives 50% support, which no Republican candidate has achieved in the modern caucus era.
Arctic weather
Complicating matters for candidates and caucus participants is the forecast for cold temperatures on Monday.
According to Fox Weather, the forecast high for Des Moines is minus-4 degrees Fahrenheit, with temperatures dropping to the teens below zero by the time voters head out to caucus sites in the evening.
A deep freeze followed the blizzard that prompted some campaigns to cancel events or hold them remotely on Friday and throughout the weekend.
Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks at a campaign event ahead of the Iowa caucus vote in Ankeny, Iowa, US, January 14, 2024. REUTERS
What about Democrats?
Although Democrats were the first to elevate Iowa to frontrunner status, the party has declined to have the Hawkeye State start its nominating calendar.
In contrast, South Carolina, the state that propelled President Biden to the 2020 nomination, will hold its official Democratic primary on February 3 — to the dismay of officials in New Hampshire, which has set its primary for January 23 against the Democratic National Committee.
Iowa stumbled in the wake of a chaotic 2020 Democratic caucus, where a software failure caused a several-day delay in reporting official results.
This time, Democrats in Iowa will hold several caucuses Monday night to conduct party business, but the actual voting will be via absentee presidential ballots that can be submitted until March 5.
Biden is expected to face little opposition for the nomination at the Democratic convention in Chicago in August.
What’s next?
After Iowa, the Republican presidential candidate will head to New Hampshire on January 23 for the first election in the country.
Will Iowa get rid of the caucus system?
There has been long talk of ditching the caucus system for primary primaries in Iowa.
Critics say the requirement to attend in-person caucuses limits turnout among rural voters as well as the infirm and elderly, providing less representative results.
However, Iowa Republican voters who spoke to The Post this week showed no inclination to undo what has been a tradition in the state since the 1800s.
“It’s historic, come on,” said Grace Kline of Des Moines.
“No, there’s nothing wrong with the caucus system,” agreed Ty Dunker, of Urbandale. “The problem is four years ago, the Democratic National Party messed up.”
Other states that have caucuses
Besides Iowa, there are more than a dozen caucus contests on the 2024 itinerary for Republicans.
This includes nine states — Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming — and four territories: American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the US Virgin Islands.
Nevada and the US Virgin Islands are the next caucuses on the docket, with both scheduled for February 8.
Iowa has 40 delegates up for grabs out of 2,469 to be awarded by the Republican National Committee, which will be distributed proportionally.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
