Europe is preparing for Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand his country’s war in Ukraine and attack NATO allies next year, leaked documents published in German newspaper BILD reveal.
According to the outlet — which obtained classified military information from the German Ministry of Defense — the country’s armed forces are preparing for a Russian “hybrid” attack in Eastern Europe.
The paper details how a range of potentially worrying scenarios could play out in the coming months.
One such scenario, dubbed “Alliance Defense 2025” will begin this February, with Russia deploying an additional 200,000 troops.
Encouraged by Western financial support for Ukraine to dry up, Russia would then launch a massive “spring offensive” against Ukraine’s armed forces.
The potential scenario outlines how Russia could begin waging war in the Baltics by July using “severe cyber attacks” while stoking discontent among Russians in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
By September, the battle, according to classified documents, could be used by Russia as an impetus to launch “Zapad 2024,” a large-scale military ‘exercise’ that will bring together some 50,000 Russian troops in the west of the country and Belarus. .
Russian President Vladimir Putin may be preparing for an attack on the NATO ally next year, which leaked German Defense Ministry documents across multiple scenarios. Getty Images
From there, the scenario suggests, Russia could move troops and intermediate-range missiles to Kaliningrad, the 86-square-mile Russian territory sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland, both of which are NATO members.
According to the document, Russia could bomb the region with a propaganda warning of an imminent attack by NATO forces, with the main goal of conquering the area known as the Suwalki Gap, a narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor located between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
By December, according to the plot – a worst-case scenario exercise – Russia could then take advantage of the transition period following the US presidential election and use propaganda, declaring a fictional “border conflict” or “riots with many deaths” to incite violence in the Suwalki Gap area and sow chaos, reports BILD.
A key part of the plan, according to the documents, could take advantage of faltering Western support for Ukraine to launch a massive “spring offensive” in the country. POOL/AFP via Getty Images
After the UN Security Council meeting in January 2025, Russia could falsely accuse Western allies of plotting to oppose Putin’s regime, which could then be used to mass troops into Belarus and the Baltics by March 2025.
The leaked document said in this scenario, 30,000 German troops would be deployed for defense, while an estimated 70,000 Russian troops would be massed in Belarus. By May 2025, the escalation could prompt NATO to enact “credible deterrence measures” to prevent further Russian aggression, which translates into a battle between Western and Russian forces.
Putin and Russian officials have repeatedly denied they would escalate the Ukraine conflict beyond the country’s borders. Although the plan obtained by BILD is a potential scenario prepared by generals in the German army, the European allies take the Russian threat seriously and are preparing accordingly.
In Russia’s latest war with Ukraine, which began in February 2022, an estimated half a million Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded. Reuters
Last week, Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin, a NATO invitee, said at the “People and Defence” conference that war in Sweden is possible. Hi ssentiment was immediately echoed by the Commander of the National Army Micael Bydén, who said: “We need to be prepared as much as possible, at all levels, throughout society,” wrote CNBC.
German Defense Ministry officials would not address the specific scenarios presented in the document, but told BILD: “I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are highly unlikely, is part of everyday military business, especially in training.”
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
