DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald Trump was so far ahead in the polls for the Iowa caucuses on Monday that supporters of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley no longer hoped their candidate could pull off an unexpected victory — but they kept the final margin respectable.
As of midday Friday, the RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump with 53% support in the Hawkeye State, followed by Haley at 17.8% and DeSantis at 15.5%.
Since 1972, no Republican non-president has won a contested Iowa caucus with more than 50% support or by more than 12.8 percentage points, the margin by which Bob Dole defeated Pat Robertson in 1988.
If the polls are correct, the 77-year-old Trump is on track to obliterate that benchmark.
“The established expectation is that Donald Trump will win over 50% of the vote, and Ron DeSantis will win. Both of those things cannot happen,” former Rep. Texas Will Hurd, a former 2024 Republican candidate and Haley supporter, told The Post after Wednesday night’s debate at Drake University.
Nikki Haley campaigned in Ankeny, Iowa, Thursday. He has focused his message to distinguish himself from Trump’s “mess” and DeSantis’ “lies.” Ron Haviv/VII/Redux
“If none of those things happen, guess what? It’s a failure,” added Hurd. “That will continue to be momentum for Ambassador Haley to go to New Hampshire.”
The former US envoy to the United Nations has said he hopes to make a “good showing” in Iowa, without saying whether that means coming in first, second or third.
“I think [Haley] will finish in the top three, no doubt about it,” said Rep. Austin Harris, another Haley supporter from Iowa. “I think it’s important that we gain momentum and exceed expectations in Iowa and take it to New Hampshire.”
The DeSantis camp has publicly said the Sunshine State governor is in Iowa to win Iowa, but supporters are also in a mood to set expectations.
Governor Ron DeSantis speaks Jan. 11, 2024, at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association meeting. Ron Haviv/VII/Redux
“Ron DeSantis is fighting to win in every state he’s in. That’s the difference between him and Nikki Haley,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo told The Post, adding that the campaign is ready to “let the chips fall where they may” on caucus night. .
“The president has set high expectations for himself. The way he sees it, he should have won by 30 points, so I think he has a high bar to meet here,” added Romeo. “We will certainly work hard and tirelessly and organize and campaign all the way to do the best we can here.”
As recently as New Year’s Eve, DeSantis had promised he would win in Iowa, ringing in 2024 by telling supporters in West Des Moines to “work hard these two weeks and win the Iowa caucuses.”
Iowa evangelical leader and DeSantis supporter Bob Vander Plaats predicted Thursday that the governor would remain on top.
“We’re going to win the Iowa caucuses with your help, but we’re going to need you,” Vander Plaats told an event in Ames.
The Trump campaign is hoping to blow out Iowa before moving on to New Hampshire, where some polls show Haley within single digits of the former commander-in-chief. The former president’s team has been working to get the maximum number of new caucus participants through their “10 for Trump” program.
Last weekend, Trump urged complacency, telling supporters in Mason City to “forget the polls that show us up 35 points. Pretend we’re one point behind.”
Ralph Reed, chairman of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, told The Post that the Trump campaign had learned from its loss in Iowa in 2016, when Reed said it had been “tricked” by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
“That’s why they go out of their way to identify caucus captains, give them a list of potentially uncommitted caucus attendees modeled as potential Trump supporters, contact them and encourage them to attend,” said Reed, who added that a 10-point margin is enough to Trump claimed a big win.
“For DeSantis, the key is, number one, to make sure he’s in second place, and number two, to make that moment as close as he can,” he said, while Haley just has to do “the best he can do. ” before going to New Hampshire.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
