WASHINGTON – If China chooses to launch a potential World War III by attacking Taiwan, it will face an uphill battle before setting foot on the island about 100 miles off its southeast coast, a US Army general said Tuesday.
Speaking before the House Armed Services Committee, Maj. Gen. Joseph McGee noted the complicating factors preventing Beijing from taking such explosive action — which would draw the US into a military conflict.
“I think it’s important to highlight [how] difficult this invasion if the Chinese decide to take such action,” said McGee, who serves as the Joint Staff’s deputy director for strategy, plans and policy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has achieved his ultimate goal of ensuring the “reunification” of China and Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway region despite its long history of governance.
Taiwan, however, considers itself a sovereign nation with a democratically elected government.
If Xi chooses to take the island by force, the American military will be responsible for defending Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act, which commits the US to come to the defense of the independently administered island if China tries to disrupt the status quo.
Maj. Gen. Joseph McGee told the House Armed Services Committee that “there is absolutely nothing easy” about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.AP Photo/Daniel Ceng, File
A long way to go
Although the United States has various diplomatic, economic and military deterrence efforts, it is not alone in preventing such a terrifying possibility, McGee said. Apart from allies and partners, one of his best helpers is geography.
Despite Taiwan’s proximity, McGee says “there’s nothing easy about a [Chinese] invasion of Taiwan,” given that the distance from mainland China to the island is about four to five times the length of time Allied troops had to travel for the World War II Normandy landings.
“Obviously, we believe and hope that preventive measures will continue to deter them, but if they do [to invade], they have to cross the Taiwan Strait, which is between 90 and 120 miles,” he said. “By comparison, for the D-Day invasion. That’s about 25 miles.
“So, there is nothing easy about the PLA’s invasion of Taiwan,” he added.
To do so, China would first need to “mass tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of troops” along its eastern border, McGee said. Intelligence officials would detect troop movements of that magnitude, which would alert US officials of an impending invasion.
“That would be a clear signal that this is starting,” he said.
The tracking method has been proven as recently as last year, when US intelligence officials predicted a February 24, 2022, Russian invasion of Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin deployed more than 100,000 troops along the border between the two countries in the months leading up to the war. start.
Applied to Taiwan, the information would trigger the US to initiate retaliation and prepare defense forces, the general said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made “reunification” with Taiwan a goal.GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
A challenging move
That range also requires China to perform difficult and organized maneuvers in the air and at sea – all while exposing its military to significant vulnerabilities, according to the general.
“They have to do a combination of amphibious and air assault operations, we believe, which is a very complicated joint operation to be able to do, especially when you’re talking about the range,” McGee said.
With the US military informed and ready to defend Taiwan, the already challenging plan to cross the disputed strait will be even more difficult to successfully execute.
“That would leave them in the middle of that gap [of] 90 to 100 miles, vulnerable to all the fire we brought on the invading forces who had already telegraphed their intentions,” he said.
Even if China were able to overcome that challenge and reach Taiwan’s coast, the island’s densely populated and rocky terrain would be inhospitable to an amphibious invasion to get Chinese troops on land, according to McGee.
“They will find an island with very little shore where you can land a ship, a mountainous area and a population that we believe is willing to fight,” he said. “They’re going to hit a city like Taipei with about 7 million people — that’s twice the size of Los Angeles.”
Despite its relatively small size of about 14,000 square miles, more than 23.5 million people live in Taiwan, making it one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
In addition to its natural defenses, McGee said Taiwan’s military is a capable force trained by the US military and supplied with American weapons.
“They will attack a country that has a reliable and strong military about the size of Taiwan.”
A Taiwanese army soldier participates in a military exercise in New Taipei City on July 27, 2023.REUTERS/Ann Wang
Why defend Taiwan?
Still, the threat of an invasion remains a significant national security risk to the US — not only because of the country’s defense commitment to the island but also because of the enormous economic threat China-controlled Taiwan would face.
“Military invasion across [Taiwan] The strait, whether in the form of outright blockade aggression or other means, will endanger human life and global prosperity unimaginable in this century,” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Ely Ratner told the committee.
That’s because it would endanger international access to key shipping lanes in the waters surrounding the island’s defenses, explained Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick.
A Taiwanese ship monitors a Chinese aircraft carrier off the coast of the island on September 11, 2023.AP
“Geographically, the Taiwan shipping lane is a global trade channel with half of the world’s trade passing through the Taiwan Strait every year,” he told the committee. “Any disruption would be felt significantly around the world, threatening more than 180,000 American jobs and critical supply chains that snarl from Alabama to Washington and beyond.”
Additionally, Resnick said conflict on the island would threaten Taiwan’s vital semiconductor production, which is used for everything from cell phones to American fighter jets and missile defenses.
“Economically, Taiwan’s advanced semiconductors are the lifeblood of the world economy, and they are used in everything from vehicles to iPhones to computers to pacemakers,” he said.
With those economic risks, the US intends to preserve the entire Strait and remains committed to the “One China Policy,” which supports the current status quo and acknowledges China believes it owns Taiwan impartially in the long-running dispute, defense and State Department officials told the committee. .
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
