In the final hours before Hurricane Idalia made landfall in Florida, the storm had grown to a Category 4 beast lurking off the state’s west coast, and forecasts called for it to continue to make landfall.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recorded winds of up to 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an ominous bulletin at 6 a.m. Wednesday.
As the sun rose an hour later, however, there was evidence of the hurricane beginning to displace the walls around its eye – a phenomenon experts say prevented it from further strengthening.
Maximum winds have dropped to nearly 125 mph, the Hurricane Center said in a 7 a.m. update.
Then came another shocking twist: A last-minute twist saved the state capital of Tallahassee from much more serious damage.
“The eyewall replacement cycle is common in major hurricanes, and when you see it, it leads to a temporary weakening,” said Kelly Godsey, one of the storm-tracking meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, where her colleagues sleep inside. . weather office so they can be at work if the city is destroyed.
Instead of striking Florida’s capital, Idalia landed near Keaton Beach.AP
The hurricane began to replace the walls around its eyes — a phenomenon that experts say prevented it from further strengthening. Fox weather
The eyewall is basically starting to collapse, and that’s “beneficial from a timing perspective,” said Donald Jones, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Lake Charles, Louisiana. A few hours after the process begins, a new eyewall forms and the hurricane can then quickly become stronger — which Idalia didn’t do because there wasn’t enough time before landfall, Jones said.
“Like a skater pulling his arm rather than extending his arm, a hurricane spins with more energy, power and ferocity when it has a tighter eye,” said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist and former chief scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
After the eyewall replacement cycle is successfully completed, the hurricane has a larger eye and the wind field expands overall, spreading the potential for damage over a larger area.
Idalia is still a major hurricane threatening storm surges of up to 15 feet along parts of coastal Florida.AP
Instead, Idalia tracks over land where friction immediately reduces wind speed near the surface.
Then, after eyewall replacement began, the hurricane took a last-minute turn away from Tallahassee, home to about 200,000 people, Florida State University and thousands more in the metro area. Instead of hitting the capital, it veered north-northeast and made landfall near Keaton Beach, Florida, the Hurricane Center announced at 7:45 a.m.
“If that turn had not happened, there would have been a more devastating impact here in Tallahassee,” Godsey said.
There are several aspects of Idalia that interest weather experts.Fox Weather
Despite the effects of the eyewall replacement cycle, Idalia is still a major hurricane that threatens a storm surge of up to 15 feet along parts of Florida’s coast.
“All that energy has been transferred to the surface of the water and a tremendous storm surge has already occurred,” Godsey said.
A hurricane that undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle can also see an expansion of its wind field, meaning a larger area can be hit by hurricane-force winds, said Allison Michaelis, assistant professor in the Department of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Northern Illinois University.
“These high waters are a combination of ‘supermoon’ tides, the effects of the Idalia storm surge and the long-term component of sea level rise associated with human-made climate change,” said one meteorologist. AFP via Getty Images
During the replacement of the eyewall, there is not much difference in the number of thunderstorms or tornadoes produced by the hurricane because that type of weather occurs in the storm’s outer band hundreds of miles from the eye, Maue said.
Farther south in Tampa, the mood intensified as forecasters tracked the storm as it moved up the coast and targeted the Big Bend region, said Christianne Pearce, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Tampa.
“The stress level is definitely up, but everyone is very alert and very concerned,” he said. “You know, what you’re talking about is making decisions to help people save lives.”
Once the storm made landfall, it moved quickly with a forward speed of about 18 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.AP
Once the storm makes landfall, it moves quickly with a forward speed of around 18 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
Fast forward speed “is both good and bad at the same time,” Pearce said. It didn’t last long enough to drop significant amounts of rain on the region, but it was fast enough that it was able to retain much of its intensity and remain a hurricane as it moved across southern Georgia.
Idalia’s inland track is relatively easy for storms to move near the coast across the Southeast US, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and reporter with Yale Climate Connections.
The location where Idalia landed on Big Bend Beach, Florida, is rarely directly hit by hurricanes. via REUTERS
“The most unusual aspect is the very high water recorded in Charleston, South Carolina, and other places along the Southeast coast,” he said. “These high waters are a combination of ‘supermoon’ tides, the effects of the Idalia storm surge and the long-term component of sea level rise associated with human-induced climate change. “
There are several aspects of Idalia that intrigue meteorologists, Michaelis said.
“It’s interesting that we had a drought of major hurricanes making landfall from 2006 to 2016, but since the 2017 season, we’ve had six major hurricanes make landfall along the entire Gulf Coast,” said Michaelis, who added that the location where Idalia made landfall on the Big Bend Coast , Florida, rarely sees a direct hit by a hurricane.
“To me, this underscores the main message we try to convey before and during every hurricane season: It only takes one,” he said. “Regardless of how quiet or active a season is, regardless of how quiet or active previous seasons have been, and regardless of where we’re used to seeing big landfalls, it only takes one storm to make an impact.”
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