LOS ANGELES – Forecasters have highlighted Southern California, including downtown Los Angeles, for “high risk” of rare flash flooding on Sunday and Monday due to a strong atmospheric river that promises to dump several inches of rain across the region.
California’s Gavin Newsom even declared a State of Emergency for several counties in Southern California to support storm response and recovery efforts.
“High risk” is the highest rung on NOAA’s flash flood threat scale and is only issued under the most dire flood forecasts.
Storms have hit the northern and central parts of the state, and snow is already accumulating along the Sierra Nevada.
“The high risk is also extended south to cover all of Los Angeles County south of the Latitude Range in coordination with (the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles),” NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said. “Life-threatening flash floods and urban flash floods may occur in high-risk areas.”
The WPC warns that this is a Category 5 atmospheric river, the top category.
The Golden State mobilized and placed a record 8,500 emergency responders ready for flooding, landslides and travel emergencies, according to the Governor’s office.
A woman walks on a flooded sidewalk in Santa Barbara, California during an atmospheric river storm on February 4, 2024. Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images Flash flooding threatens on Sunday, February 4, 2024. FOX Weather
States of Emergency include Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Luis Obispo and Ventura Counties.
The National Weather Service office in Los Angeles continued to use strong language in its forecast, indicating a significant threat of widespread and dangerous flash flooding through Monday.
Forecasters warn that flooding issues will not be limited to the normally exposed areas of the foothills, mountains and burn areas and that many mudslides and debris flows are expected.
Additionally, moist and unstable air is likely to trigger scattered strong to even a few severe thunderstorms along and off the Central California coast.
Palm trees are blown over by strong winds during a storm in Santa Barbara. Photo by DAVID MCNEW/AFP via Getty Images
A few storms could produce waterspouts Sunday across central and southern coastal waters from the Santa Barbara channel northward past Santa Cruz.
A brief tornado or two is also possible as any water jets blow ashore, the NWS said.
The NWS in Los Angeles stated that rainfall rates could be up to 1.5 inches per hour in thunderstorms. Los Angeles typically only sees 2.89 inches of rain during the month of January.
Evacuation warnings are in place due to several days of heavy rain expected in Southern California.
A boat runs aground during a storm in Santa Barbara. Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images
‘Extreme’ rainfall amounts are possible across Southern California
An area of low pressure is targeting another atmospheric river off the California coast through Monday and bringing slugs of moisture straight from the tropics, according to the FOX Prediction Center.
Unlike past systems, this storm is in no rush to leave. That will keep rivers of atmospheric moisture in California for about three days as the rain continues into Tuesday.
Several televised and sporting events scheduled to take place in Southern California on Sunday have been postponed due to extreme threats.
Rain forecast until Wednesday, Feb 7. 2024. FOX Weather A submerged car during flooding caused by an atmospheric river storm in Long Beach on February 1, 2024. CAROLINE BREHMAN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
While all of California will experience rain, the areas of greatest concern are along the southern coast range into the Los Angeles Basin.
The heaviest rain will fall between Sunday and Monday, with peak rainfall expected on Sunday night.
On Monday, a Level 4 flood risk remained centered in the Los Angeles metro area, while a Level 3 risk extended from north of Los Angeles south to the San Diego area.
Here’s a look at the threat of flash flooding in California through Tuesday, Feb. 6. 2024. FOX Weather
“It shows you the confidence that we know this is going to be a bigger storm,” Merwin said. “It has more moisture on it. There’s a greater threat of flooding for Southern California.
The Los Angeles metro area may see 5 inches or more by midweek.
Los Angeles averages just over 14 inches of rain a year.
Rain forecast for the Los Angeles area through Tuesday, Feb. 6. 2024. FOX Weather
As mentioned earlier, the surrounding mountains and foothills could see 10-12 inches of rain. Favored mountains and foothills could see 8-15 inches of rain.
A few feet of snow is possible in the Sierra Nevada
The moisture plume will generate a significant winter storm for the Sierra Nevada, with 4-6 feet of snow likely above 5,000-6,000 feet, the FOX Prediction Center said.
Disruption to daily life, including difficult to impossible travel conditions, is expected.
In the mountains of Southern California, snow levels are expected around 7,000 feet, but 2–4 feet of snow is possible above that level.
People walk through heavy snow in Kings Canyon National Park in California on February 1, 2024. Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images A significant winter storm is expected in the Sierra Nevada, with several feet of snow likely above 5,000-6,000 feet. FOX Weather
Damaging winds for the coast of San Francisco, Central and Northern California
In addition to the threat of heavy rain, damaging winds have battered the Central California coast southward toward Santa Barbara. This includes part of the San Francisco Bay Area.
A High Wind Warning for gusts up to 70 mph will be in effect along the coast throughout the evening and overnight.
Already, Funt Ranch saw gusts of 88 mph, Pebble Beach saw gusts of 65 mph and Oakland with gusts of 62 mph.
Wind forecast for California. FOX Weather
About 50 miles north of San Francisco in Santa Rosa, a driver was injured after a tree fell on their vehicle on the northbound 101 Freeway on Sunday morning, according to Sonoma County Fire District.
Elsewhere in Sonoma County, homes were damaged in Bodega Bay after a tree fell on them Sunday morning. Officer said no injuries were reported in this incident.
Stronger winds are possible in the mountains around Southern California, with gusts as high as 70-80 mph.
In southern Santa Barbara County, strong winds toppled a 70-foot tree onto a condominium complex in Goleta early Sunday morning, according to Santa Barbara County Fire Department Public Information Officer Scott Safechuck.
At least four adults and a dog were evacuated from the complex.
70′ Waterfall in Condo Complex: 7600 Blk. Hollister Ave., Goleta. Two units are red marked by the Building Department (1 upstairs & 1 downstairs), accommodating 4 adults & 1 dog. Firefighters are helping to rescue and retrieve personal belongings for residents who have lost their homes. CT 4:19 am. pic.twitter.com/dJC6m5Hev9
— Scott Safechuck (@SBCFireInfo) February 4, 2024
On the coast, these winds will also send the Pacific Ocean into a frenzy with waves as high as 10-20 feet possibly hitting beaches up and down the state.
Streams of moisture behind the storm will keep periods of rain in the forecast for the rest of the week, although there will be longer dry spells between rain and snow.
The first Hurricane Force Wind Warning was issued off the coast of Central California
The Bay Area NWS office issued its first Hurricane-Force Wind Warning for waters off the coast of Central California, where mariners may encounter hurricane-force winds (74-plus mph).
Very Dangerous Wind.
Waters from Big Sur Beach out to 60 nautical miles have been upgraded to a Hurricane Force Wind Warning for winds of 35 to 55 kt with gusts up to 80 knots (about 92 mph).#CAwx pic.twitter.com/Zbt2dNryJ1
— NWS Bay Area ? (@NWSBayArea) February 4, 2024
“Very strong winds will cause dangerous seas that may capsize or damage ships and severely reduce visibility,” forecasters wrote in the warning.
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