Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could receive up to 26% support from registered voters in six key battleground states as voters are disaffected by an increasingly likely rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, a new poll shows.
The New York Times/Siena College poll showed the 69-year-old political scion, environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine advocate with 22% support in Wisconsin, 23% in Nevada and Pennsylvania, 24% support in Georgia, and 26% support in Arizona and Michigan .
The poll also showed Kennedy most popular among young likely voters, with 34% of respondents ages 18 to 29 and 31% of respondents ages 30 to 44 saying they would support him in a three-way race.
The son of the late attorney general and senator from New York initially challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination but opted for an independent contest last month.
If Kennedy makes the ballot in any or all of the six states, the poll shows his presence is more likely to hurt Trump than Biden — but he will take support from both candidates.
RFK Jr. is garnering the bulk of support in key battleground states, according to reports. AP Poll shows that the candidacy of RFK Jr. will hurt Trump more, although independents will draw support from both candidates.
In a hypothetical two-way race, 46% of Kennedy supporters in six states said they would support or lean toward the 45th president.
Another 39% said they would vote or were leaning toward Biden.
The poll previously showed Trump ahead of Biden in five of six key states among registered voters, with only Wisconsin going Democratic, by a slim two-point margin.
Donald Trump’s competitive advantage against Joe Biden in several battleground states declined as RFK Jr. added to the mix.Steven Hirsch
By involving Kennedy, however, the political picture becomes murkier.
Trump and Biden are tied in Arizona at 33% each with third-party candidates in the mix, and both men are tied in Pennsylvania at 35% each.
The former president’s lead over Biden in Georgia increased to seven percentage points (36% to 29%) when RFK Jr. included, while the 77-year-old Republican’s lead shrank to three points in Michigan (34% to 31%) and seven points in Nevada (38% to 31%).
RFK Jr. switched to run an independent presidential bid last month.REUTERS
Wisconsin still favored Biden by two percentage points, but each major party candidate’s vote share dropped by 10 percentage points, to 37% for Biden and 35% for Trump.
Kennedy’s competitive show was largely fueled by contempt for both past White House occupants.
The poll found that only 42% of registered voters had a favorable view of Trump, with 56% having an unfavorable view — but the spread of Biden was worse, with 41% saying they had a favorable opinion of the commander in chief and 57% saying they had an unfavorable view.
President Biden’s allies are nervous about his anemic showing in the polls against GOP front-runner Donald Trump.AP
Voters also indicated that they trust Trump more than Biden on the economy, despite the president’s efforts to tout his “Bidenomics” agenda.
The NYT/Siena College vote sent hearts racing through the Democratic Party, with several figures publicly imploring Biden to consider his position.
“The stakes of the miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” said former Obama strategist David Axelrod write on X. “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the candidate of the Democratic Party. What he had to decide was whether that was wise; either for HIS interest or the country’s?”
Former White House chief of staff Ron Klain responded by attacking Axelrod for his disparagement of Biden.
“The guy who called Biden ‘Mr Magoo’ in August 2019 is still doing it,” Klain chided Sunday.
Other analysts point to polls that show former President Barack Obama is in decline at this point in his presidency before cruising to a re-election victory over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
No independent candidate for president has been as successful as Ross Perot in the more than 30 years since his campaign.Getty Images
No presidential contender outside the Democratic-Republican duopoly has won a state since George Wallace carried Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi for the American Independent Party in 1968.
In 1992, Reform Party candidate Ross Perot won a higher percentage of the vote than Wallace but did not secure any electoral votes, finishing second in Maine and Utah.
In a three-way national matchup, Biden is on top with 40% support, followed by Trump at 38.8%, and Kennedy Jr. at 14.6%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
