Veteran political strategists say President Biden doesn’t have the numbers to win re-election in 2024 — and they’re floating the idea that the 80-year-old commander-in-chief might not be the Democratic nominee.
The sharp assessment of the president’s re-election bid comes after a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden polling behind former President Donald Trump in key battleground states such as Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Dick Morris, a former adviser to former Democratic President Bill Clinton, told The Post on Tuesday that there is “no way forward” for Biden at this point.
Morris suggested that the Democratic National Committee could see the writing on the wall and refuse to give Biden a delegate, opening the door to other Democrats like California’s Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
Henry Olsen, a veteran political analyst and senior fellow with the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, said it might be in the Democratic Party’s best interest for Biden to get out — though only if there is a credible alternative that is “left of center” like Biden, “has nothing to do with the administration.” and “25 is 30 years younger.”
Biden is no longer the Democratic Party’s “best bet,” Olsen acknowledged.
A majority of voters, 71%, have concerns about President Biden’s 80-year-old age, a new poll shows. AFP via Getty Images
But “if Biden stops making open primaries that lead to someone to the left of Biden emerging, then Biden will probably do better,” the expert added.
A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden trailing Trump — the current frontrunner in the GOP primary — by 10 percentage points in Nevada. Trump also outperformed Biden by 6 points in Georgia, 5 in Arizona, 5 in Michigan and 5 in Pennsylvania. Biden topped his 77-year-old predecessor in Wisconsin by a 2-point margin.
The polls show “serious warning signs that the president is in deep political trouble,” said Douglas Schoen, a veteran political strategist and former Clinton adviser.
Trump is a “flawed candidate” thanks to his legal trial, Schoen said. “But polls show that voters want “any alternative” to Biden they can get.” Still, “Democrats don’t really have a clear front-runner” to replace him.”
Biden has “historically low job approval ratings, and polling nationally has shown a 4 to 5 point change from 2020 to today, so we shouldn’t be surprised that he’s hemorrhaging in these states that he won by less than one percent, ” added Olsen, the Washington Post columnist. “If Biden can change his job approval ratings, he could start to rise in the polls.”
Democrats have shown concern about Biden across the board for a while, but the new poll numbers are prompting a new wave of criticism.
Donald Trump leads Biden nationally when polling averages results.REUTERS
Democratic strategist David Axelrod – who is credited with spearheading former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign – has openly suggested Biden drop out of the race because of the possibility of Trump winning if he stays.
“What [Biden] having to decide is whether that is wise; either for HIS interest or the country’s?” Axelrod posted on X over the weekend, noting that there is “risk” in Biden going down now but that “the miscalculation stakes here are too dramatic to ignore.”
Connecticut Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that he had been “concerned” before and after the latest swing state data came out.
“This presidential race in the last few terms has been very tight,” the senator said.
“No one will hold a runaway election here. It will take a lot of hard work, focus, resources.”
Polls show that the majority of voters put the economy as the No. 1 concern. 1 them for the next election.
Biden’s economic performance has underwater approval ratings, reaching as low as 30% in July during record high inflation.
Overall, Trump leads by an average of .9 points over Biden nationally, according to the latest RealClearPolitics data.
Voters are showing they think “Biden is too old,” said Republican strategist Frank Luntz. “They don’t believe he has the ability now, and they certainly don’t believe he has five years from now.”
A New York Times/Siena College poll showed 71% of voters worried about Biden’s age, with 54% of his supporters expressing concern. As for Trump, who is three years younger than Biden, only 39% of voters think he is too old for the job.
“One hopes that Biden himself will realize that people are turning on him” and that he himself should drop out of the race, Luntz said, noting that the DNC doesn’t want to “throw their incumbents out,” because history shows that moving away from the national party leads to the victory of the opposition.
Biden also lost support from minority voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.REUTERS
Biden has also seen his margin of support bleed among minority voters, with Trump within single digits of the president among Latinos in swing states.
Trump also polled at 22% support from black voters in what the New York Times called “unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.”
Among Arab-American voters, Biden polled at a dismal 17.4% after supporting Israel in its war against the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, according to a poll by John Zogby Strategies, commissioned by the Arab American Institute.
The underwater numbers among Arab-Americans bode “badly” for Biden’s re-election campaign, especially in Michigan, a state with a high percentage of Arab-American voters, Democratic pollster Zogby told The Post.
Arab-American voters have historically been split about 50/50 between Democrats and Republicans, but Biden’s position on the Israel-Hamas war and his low approval of the economy have changed things drastically, Zogby said, noting that even the election was “far “, Dem and Rep presidential candidates. Minnesota’s Dean Phillips could “embarrass” Biden in the New Hampshire primary.
Political strategist Dick Morris suggests “no way forward” for Biden.AFP via Getty Images
Black voters, who are showing record support for Trump, are worried about the economy and inflation, especially gas prices, said John McLaughlin, a GOP strategy consultant and pollster.
Nearly 50% of African-American voters and 63% of Hispanic voters said they thought the country was headed in the “wrong direction” under Biden, according to an October McLaughlin & Associates poll.
But getting someone else to replace Biden will be a tall order, given that Vice President Kamala Harris fared worse in a theoretical head-to-head matchup against Trump, McLaughlin added.
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