Former President Donald Trump is well and truly on track to reclaim the White House in 2024, a detailed nationwide study has found.
Trump defeated President Biden 292-246 in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote 49.0% to 47.8%, according to an analysis from Data Stack Strategies released today.
In the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College while winning 51.3% of the popular vote. Trump received only 46.8% support.
Under current trends, according to the poll, the 77-year-old Trump would flip four key states that ran against him last time: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However, all four states will go into the Republican column by narrow margins, with Trump leading in Arizona by 1.4%, Georgia by 3.3%, Pennsylvania by 2.3% and Wisconsin by 0.9%.
Joe Biden has shrugged off polling problems, pointing to other polls where he is ahead.REUTERS
Recent polls have also pegged Trump as the leader in a handful of battleground states, sending a tremor of fear through the Democratic Party.
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as it stands now, if Donald Trump is elected as the Republican nominee, he will likely win,” said Joe Bedell, head of Stack North America. Data Strategy, said in a statement.
“Despite recent calls for change, our survey also shows that neither party will benefit from a change of candidates,” he added. “President Trump will defeat both potential Biden successors by a larger margin.”
Donald Trump has topped Joe Biden in a bunch of polls.Getty Images According to the polls, Trump will narrowly flip four key states that ran against him last time: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.X/@StackStrat
Biden is projected to win re-election in a landslide if he faces Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis next year, according to the study. In that hypothetical, Biden would win 359 electoral votes to DeSantis’ 179 votes — the most since Bill Clinton won a second term with 379 electoral votes in 1996.
Meanwhile, if Biden is forced to withdraw, Trump will overcome both Vice President Kamala Harris (311-227) and California’s Gavin Newsom (319-219).
Both Newsom and Harris have talked about possibly jumping into the fray and have staunchly backed Biden’s candidacy.
There is still a year to go before voters make up their minds. A lot can happen between now and then.REUTERS
The poll also showed that Trump would defeat Biden by a larger electoral margin, 298-240, when independent candidates were included.
In that scenario, Stack Data Strategy found, inferior contenders like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and the Green Party and Libertarian candidates would eventually attract enough support from Democrats to flip Nevada into the Republican column.
A lot can still change between now and Election Day on November 5, 2024. Trump faces 91 criminal charges across four indictments — two of which are federal cases.
The former president got very high marks from voters for his handling of the economy.Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
The 45th president will go on trial for the first time on March 4 next year on charges that he illegally tried to stay in office despite his loss to Biden.
Biden’s campaign has drawn media coverage of his dismal poll numbers and expressed confidence about his position.
“Time and time again, Biden has exceeded expectations. Happening in 2020, happening in 2022, happening on Tuesday night,” communications director Michael Tyler said during a press call last week.
President Biden is expected to turn 81 next week. AFP via Getty Images
“You see days, weeks, months of uncertain predictions about how bad things are going to be for Joe Biden followed by election day with a historic victory,” he said.
The White House has taken a victory lap following the Democratic wins in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Virginia and elsewhere in Tuesday’s off-elections.
The Stack Data Strategy survey was conducted among 15,000 people across the US from Oct. 12. until Nov. 3 Those results are extrapolated using census data to build state and county-level maps of current voting intentions.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
