WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump’s poll lead over President Biden is widening — with a new poll finding the Republican up by 4% nationally, boosted by a year of dramatic swings in black and Hispanic support.
The latest poll by Emerson College, released Wednesday, found Trump leading 47% to 43% — with Biden’s advantage among minority groups that historically support Democrats shrinking significantly in just one year.
The 81-year-old incumbent’s lead among Hispanic voters narrowed to 3%, down from 14% in an Emerson poll last November — a shift of 11 percentage points.
Biden’s lead among African Americans is a still-large 47%, but down 15 percentage points from this time last year.
Recent national polls have found Biden slipping badly among minority groups — including a New York Times poll of six swing states earlier this month that found the 77-year-old former president ahead in five of them, driven by falling support for Biden among non-whites . 33% of exit polls in 2020.
Trump’s support among black voters, meanwhile, has increased 22% since 2020, the Times poll found.
It’s unclear what’s behind the dramatic shift in support among minorities, though polls consistently show economic concerns — including inflation and high interest rates — are top issues for voters.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 4.5% in the popular vote, although he won by smaller margins in the swing states that ensured he won the Electoral College.
Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead over President Biden is increasing.Getty Images
Trump drew 8% support from blacks and 38% from Hispanics in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.
Trump’s black support has remained relatively stable over the past two elections, but his Hispanic support has increased by about 12 points from 2016 to 2020.
In his first run for office, one of Trump’s main issues was building the US-Mexico border wall. In his re-election bid, his boost in Hispanic support was due in part to his tough approach to leftist governments in Latin America.
The Emerson College poll was one of a series that showed Trump ahead of Biden despite facing four criminal trials starting next year related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, concealment of 2016 hush payments and his alleged mishandling of classified national security. documents.
Biden’s advantage among minority groups that historically support Democrats dropped significantly in just one year.Getty Images
Trump leads Biden in 11 of 13 recent polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics, which has Trump ahead of the president by an average spread of 47.2% to 44.9%.
The former president has sought to turn his criminal charges to his political advantage by arguing that he was wronged by partisan prosecutors. Black supporters have protested outside his court appearance and told reporters they too are familiar with a biased legal system.
Trump has also campaigned on mass deportations of illegal immigrants, cracking down on violent crime and pivoting foreign policy to take a tougher approach to China and negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the Emerson poll, Trump also narrowed Biden’s lead among women to 1 percentage point — down from seven years ago — and among four-year college graduates. Biden has a 2% advantage among that demographic, down from 18% last November.
At the same point four years ago, Biden had a 9.6% lead over Trump, while Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.4% in the RealClearPolitics average eight years ago.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
