With two new polls showing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis losing to former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, major super PACs supporting DeSantis are focusing on Republican voters who want to switch from one to the other. -time commander in chief.
Never Back Down has spent more than $30 million so far on advertising, focusing on Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada — the first four states on the Republican primary calendar.
Despite a large amount of spending and fundraising, DeSantis has made no headway in the race for the GOP nomination.
On Monday, the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Haley, 51, and DeSantis, 45, tied for second, 27 percentage points behind Trump, 77.
On Tuesday, a CNN/SSRS South Carolina poll had DeSantis a distant third at 11% among likely Republican primary voters, with Trump well ahead at 53% and Haley at 22%.
Ron DeSantis is seen as the favorite to beat Donald Trump and remains in second place on average, but has slipped in the polls since the start of his campaign. AP
“The way we see this race is there are three buckets,” a source familiar with Never Back Down’s advertising strategy told The Post. “There is a Trump base. They are voters who are definitely with him and never leave him. There is a middle bucket, which is voters who voted for President Trump probably both times [in 2016 and 2020]some of them were Day One supporters, but they felt it was time to move on.
“And then you have the never Trump bucket, and they are people who just want to defeat Trump,” added the person, who said Haley has “won the race in the never Trump bucket.”
However, the so-called centrist bucket “has grown” in the last few months, “especially in Iowa and New Hampshire,” and is “consolidating behind DeSantis,” the source said.
Even polls that make grim reading for DeSantis supporters show reason for optimism.
The Iowa poll, for example, showed that only 63% of Trump supporters said their minds were made up to support the 45th president – a number that amounted to about 27% of all possible Hawkeye State caucus participants.
In the same poll, 54% of all likely GOP caucus goers said they could be persuaded to support someone other than their first choice.
When asked for their second choice, a plurality of 27% said DeSantis, 17% said Haley, 12% said Trump, 10% said Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and 9% said Vivek Ramaswamy.
Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College poll in July showed a large number of Republicans, 16%, either would vote for President Biden, did not vote at all, voted for a third-party candidate, or were unsure what to do if Trump was the nominee.
Trump-weary votes will become more critical as the field thins and the former president no longer competes with a multi-candidate field, veteran election watchers told The Post.
But the key is to get them to the polls.
Donald Trump leads the Republican field by more than 46 points in the average poll, getting 59%.AP
“The Trump-weary vote is a group that needs to be energized to show up,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, describing the cohort as largely made up of older voters who needed a reason to turn out.
“DeSantis, if that’s his strategy, needs to clearly define why they should vote for him and not anyone else.”
Even so, Republican strategist John Thomas argued, “the math just isn’t there” for DeSantis to overcome Trump’s lead, especially since Haley is unlikely to quit anytime soon.
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Trump’s lead has been “very solid” throughout the primary campaign, Thomas said, adding that Never Back Down is “very unlikely” to change the trajectory.
“They’re not magicians,” said Thomas, who added that “the only strategy I think is possible right now, is if Trump implodes under his own weight.”
The Never Back Down ad has also recently shifted the focus of its attacks on Haley away from Trump, a move that a source familiar with the super PAC’s strategy described as “consolidating the field.”
The super PAC has released ads criticizing Haley’s record in China and her alleged stance on allowing refugees from Gaza into the US.
“If Vivek was alive and if Tim Scott was alive, I’m sure we would have shown their records as well,” said a source in the know. “For us to unify the field, we need to make sure that voters are aware of the opponents to communicate this to the Trump vs. DeSantis race.”
Nationally, Trump leads the field with 59% of the vote, compared to DeSantis’ 12.6% and Haley’s 8.3%, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
No other candidate reached 5%.
Previous ads have highlighted DeSantis’ record as Florida governor, his military background, his family and his border policies, with several points of difference between him and Trump.
Ron DeSantis’ campaign has focused on Iowa in hopes of showing voters that it will be a “two-person” race between him and Trump.AP
Currently, Never Back Down is only serving TV ads in Iowa and New Hampshire, with sources saying its footprint may expand after Thanksgiving.
“We’ll see what the campaigns are doing” to “complement what they’re doing” in terms of ads, the person said.
Super PACs have added to DeSantis’ campaign events by inviting him as a special guest because reports indicate the governor only has $5 million in cash on hand for the primary.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
