Announcement of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) announcement this week that he won’t run for re-election won’t change the 2024 Senate math for Republicans — who are so confident about a red run.
In contrast to their defeat in the 2022 midterm elections — the GOP insists that 2024 will be a better year.
In November, the GOP lost seats in Pennsylvania and failed to pick up any new ones, leaving it two votes shy of taking the majority.
Party leaders say the 2024 map — when 33 seats are up for grabs — offers uniquely bright prospects.
“We are excited to compete in this cyclically profitable area. The [National Republican Senatorial Committee] will recruit top-level candidates, develop a winning message, and increase the resources we need to ensure we win the Republican majority in 2024,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Montana) told The Post.
Daines, the new chair of the NRSC, and his colleagues noted that the three crimson states in the 2024 cycle, West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio are now represented by Democrats.
They also insist they are competitive in at least three states that Biden won.
Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines, the new chairman of the NRSC, said the party is “excited to compete in a profitable area” in 2024. AP
Veteran Democratic political consultant James Carville said his party needs to focus on the quality of candidates in 2024.
“People need to wake up. It will be a very scary Senate map for Democrats. No one can dispute that,” he said. “It was a terrible year.”
Democrats and independents who align with them will defend 22 seats overall while Republicans will only control 11.
The GOP will play defense in strongholds like Utah, Nebraska, and Mississippi.
This is how the battlefield is formed:
Montana
Daines home state is one of his main targets.
His colleague from the Big Sky State, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has beaten the odds before in the state — but things have gotten redder over the years.
Democratic US Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, of Nevada.AP
Montana won Trump by 16 points in the 2020 election.
The governor and both members of Congress are now Republicans.
In two of the Tester’s last three wins, he did not receive more than 50% of the vote.
In February Tester said he would seek another term, and told MSNBC in December that he “feels good about his chances.”
Republicans believe they have a winning candidate in former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, but he may still face primary competition from Montana GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale.
West Virginia
The heartland of coal country is more hostile to Democrats today than anywhere else.
Trump won the state in 2020 by 39 points – his largest margin of victory.
Yet Democratic Senator Robert Byrd — the former “glorified cyclops” of the Ku Klux Klan turned liberal icon — represented West Virginia for more than 50 years until his death in 2010.
Senator Joe Manchin, a popular former governor, has kept the seat in Democratic hands.
Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd represented West Virginia for more than 50 years until his death in 2010. AP
Republicans have repeatedly blown opportunities to oust him.
Manchin, who has not confirmed he will run again, survived in part because of his willingness to stand up to liberals, including socialists like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Manchin has said he will make a final decision in December.
“Defeating Joe Manchin is our top priority, and we are fully capable and ready to send him into permanent political retirement,” Tony M. Hodge, co-chairman of the state Republican Party, said.
Republican US Sen. JD Vance wins 2022 midterm in Ohio.AP
Republicans have spent months courting the state’s wealthy and popular GOP governor, Jim Justice — who entered the race in April.
Polls show he is the only one who can beat Manchin.
West Virginia congressman Alex Mooney is also in the running for the seat.
Ohio
Once a swing state, Ohio has shown a sharp trend to the right, supporting Trump in 2020 by an 8-point margin.
Although Republicans failed in the 2022 midterms, they picked up the other Buckeye state Senate seat, won by author and venture capitalist JD Vance.
Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown easily knocked off GOP challengers in 2006, 2012, and 2018, but Republicans hope his time is finally up.
Ohio Valley US Senator JD Vance at a meet and greet at Leonardo’s Coffeehouse on North 4th Street.
“Sherrod Brown is vulnerable. He represents an Ohio that no longer exists. He ran as fiscally left-wing, socially centrist, very midwestern — but he doesn’t meet that standard anymore, and the Democratic Party doesn’t exist anymore,” said Ryan Girdusky, member GOP political strategy that helped elect Vance.
Matt Dolan, a popular GOP state senator, has entered the race and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running TV ads.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also seeking the nomination.
The third candidate. Bernie Moreno recently made headlines after floating the idea of reparations to white people.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has become a national swing state.
After narrowly supporting former President Trump in the 2016 election, the state elected Biden in 2020 by just 20,000 votes.
Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson held on to his seat while being seen as the party’s weakest incumbent in the 2022 midterms. Sipa USA via AP
Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin spoke about Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office to the media.AP
In 2022, GOP Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson managed to retain his seat but is widely considered the party’s weakest midterm incumbent.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a longtime Democrat, is seeking re-election in 2024.
Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein is the most prominent Republican to emerge so far to challenge Baldwin.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is looking to recruit Eric Hobde or Scott Mayer — both successful businessmen.
More famous candidates like Rep. Mike Gallagher, the popular GOP congressman from Green Bay, has publicly bowed.
“People like Tammy Baldwin,” said one Senate Democrat, who warned against GOP overconfidence. “He’s working on local issues, which is something Republicans never think about. They only speak nationally. He travels the state and he has a very strong regional staff from rural to more urban and he knows how to speak in every region.”
Arizona
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema raised eyebrows when she dumped Democrats in December to officially become an independent.
US Senator Kyrsten Sinema recently switched from the Democratic Party to Independent.AP
Sinema’s stellar polling record has long frustrated party activists itching to launch an election against him.
Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego challenged him, telling Politico that he “has talked to a lot of national Democratic donors.”
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Corbin Trent, the progressive political operative and one-time director of comms for the AOC, said a Republican in 2024 “is not off the table. I’d give them a 60-40 tilt in their favor if you had Cinema and a Democrat running against a Republican.”
Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,000 votes.
However, for now, polls show Gallego beating both Sinema and potential GOP challengers.
Michigan
Michigan generally leans Democratic, but Republicans have been bolstered by the state’s popular Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s decision not to seek re-election.
Michigan was known as Trump’s successor in 2016 — playing a key role in sending him to the White House, but reverted to Biden in 2020.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Flint), a popular moderate, announced she would seek to replace Stabenow.
Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education, is also seeking nomination.
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan will not seek re-election.AP
“The Good Doctor” actor Hill Harper is also in the running.
On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers is running as well as Nikki Snyder, a member of the Michigan State Board of Education.
“If Republicans spend and run smart candidates, we’ll have this as a potential pickup,” said Garrett Ventry, a GOP consultant. “Dems also need to play defense in deep red.”
Rep. John James, former congressman Fred Upton, and 2022 GOP gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon have all been floated.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
