WASHINGTON – Beijing stepped up the intensity of its election interference operations last year – likely due to President Biden’s perceived vulnerability and the belief the activity would draw less attention in a non-presidential year, according to a newly revealed intelligence report.
A 21-page document compiled by the National Intelligence Council and disclosed last week by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, concluded that China’s Communist Party leadership “quietly approved” the influence campaign, raising fears that the US’s arch-rival is preparing for more . aggressive disruption drive in 2024.
According to the report, senior Beijing officials “have issued broad directives to intensify efforts” to influence not only American public opinion, but also foreign policy in China’s favor since the last presidential election.
“[Chinese] leaders most likely see their efforts to widen the divisions of US society as a response to what they believe are intensified US efforts to promote democracy at China’s expense,” the authors wrote.
President Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month. Getty Images
Underpinning the activity is concern in Beijing about rising anti-China sentiment in the US and a belief that it must be tackled, the report assessed.
Relations with China have strained dramatically under the Biden administration, which has moved to cut Beijing off from strategic technologies such as advanced semiconductors and shot down a Chinese spy balloon that drifted through US airspace for more than a week earlier this year.
‘Implied approval’
In the run-up to last year’s midterms, the Chinese government gave “influential actors more freedom to operate” than in previous election cycles, “perhaps” because it “doesn’t expect the current administration to react as badly as they fear in 2020,” according to the report.
Xi Jinping presides over a booming economy and a host of domestic problems that are mounting at this time. Reuters
The direction is also due in part to low-key midterm elections, where Chinese officials “believe that Beijing is under scrutiny.”
“Beijing almost certainly sees the US midterm elections as an opportunity to portray the US model of democracy as chaotic, ineffective and unrepresentative, and often directed. [Chinese] message to highlight the US side on social issues, such as abortion and gun control,” the report said.
Although fewer Americans are voting in midterm elections, China has a keen interest in influencing congressional races “as Beijing is convinced that Congress is a locus of anti-China activity, prompting a deterioration in bilateral relations and more aggressively threatening China’s core interests,” according to to intelligence reports.
“The PRC leader has repeatedly instructed officials to focus on the Congress,” the report said, using the People’s Republic of China’s official acronym. “… In 2021, Beijing identifies specific members of Congress to punish for their anti-China views and reward for their support of Beijing.”
The report, which retained important redactions, did not publicly identify the elected officials targeted.
China’s leaders have not allowed a “comprehensive campaign” to influence the midterms in favor of one political party over another, the report found, adding that the choice had more to do with plausible deniability than any real choice by Beijing.
“Chinese officials almost certainly see the risks of such efforts as greater than the rewards as they are wary of exposure of their influence efforts in the United States,” the report said.
Further, it likely does not want to “get involved in US politics” and concludes overall that “Congress will remain opposed to Beijing regardless of which party is in control.”
While officials have not found a top-down order to meddle in elections like the Russian effort in 2016, they believe “a handful of midterm races” were targeted.
Relations between the US and China have been strained in recent years. AP
How they do it
Although the intelligence community assesses that China has not officially signed off on a full-scale campaign, officials may take liberties to counter the anti-Beijing narrative in the US.
“PRC intelligence officials, diplomats and other influential actors may view some election meddling activities as consistent with Beijing’s regular guidance of opposing US politicians seen as anti-China and supporting others seen as pro-China,” the report said. .
“A huge amount [influence activity] actively engaged in content highlighting US political divisions and denigrating US democracy, themes consistent with China’s internal guidelines.”
In its efforts, China is relying heavily on online influence – including some on TikTok, which is currently under scrutiny in the US for its ties to Beijing, according to the report.
“Information from August shows that China’s English-language messaging efforts on TikTok have increased the focus on US politicians and US domestic issues, such as abortion, mass shootings and immigration,” the report said. “In contrast, PRC state media coverage of the 2020 presidential election is limited … in the amount of content.”
The strategy follows other foreign adversaries, such as Russia, who have turned away from publishing false articles and self-made propaganda in favor of “reinforcing the existing public narrative,” sowing distrust in the US democratic system and “stocks.”[ing] sociopolitical divisions,” according to the report.
“This approach provides deniability when foreign actors disseminate US content to try to exploit existing fissures,” the report said.
Donald Trump has called Xi Jinping a ‘brilliant man,’ and crowed about China’s tough foreign policy against China. Getty Images
Looking ahead
Suspicion of the Chinese Communist Party has become a bipartisan issue ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Both Biden and former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner, have touted their efforts to push back against Beijing.
Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in a statement that Americans can expect further interference by China as voting day approaches.
“Beijing is shifting its focus from influencing foreign audiences to outright meddling in their elections – and its sights are set on the 2024 US presidential race,” he said in a statement. “China’s goal is threefold: to sow social division, prevent Americans from voting, and portray democracy as dysfunctional.”
President Biden has warned China not to interfere in Taiwan’s upcoming election. AFP via Getty Images
As the presidential election approaches, the Chinese government shows no signs of slowing down in its attempts to influence race next year, Singleton said.
“China’s growing electoral mix is consistent with its efforts to change global norms about Chinese autocracy and Western democracy, that is, by comparing, contrasting and consistently misrepresenting two competing visions in ways that benefit China,” he said.
What’s more, China’s influence efforts will likely affect more than the US, especially with Taiwan holding its presidential election in January.
Reuniting Taiwan with the mainland is Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s main goal for his country, and Biden warned him against meddling in Taipei’s election at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco last month.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
