Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Idalia to make landfall on Gulf Coast with lessons learned from Ian

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Florida prepares for Tropical Storm Idalia to make landfall on Gulf Coast with lessons learned from Ian

Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches have been issued for parts of Florida as the state prepares for Idalia’s possible landfall.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico to Tropical Storm Idalia on Sunday, with landfall expected as a hurricane along Florida’s Gulf Coast later this week.

There are only a few days left for Florida residents to prepare for the effects of the storm, and Governor Ron DeSantis declared an emergency for 33 counties to ensure communities have the resources they need before the storm’s arrival.

DeSantis said in a news conference on Sunday that everyone along Florida’s Gulf Coast should prepare.

The governor urged residents not to wait to prepare if they are outside the cone of uncertainty, recalling forecasts for last year’s Hurricane Ian, which at one point had the potential to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Ian made landfall in Southwest Florida as a major hurricane.

“The models are probably more agreeable than when we had Ian last year. But this can change. There’s still some uncertainty out there,” DeSantis said.

The FOX Forecast Center performs post-data analysis after any tropical system makes landfall to determine the agreement and accuracy of forecast models.

The NHC issued a Storm Surge Watch, Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Watch for parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast on Sunday.

More watches and warnings may be issued for other areas along Florida’s Gulf Coast in the coming days.

Tropical Storm Idalia“The models are probably more agreeable than when we had Ian last year. But this can change. There’s still some uncertainty out there,” DeSantis said. FOX Weather

Florida Division of Emergency Management Executive Director Kevin Guthrie said storm surge was the number one cause of death during Hurricane Ian.

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“Don’t just focus on the cone. The cone is where the eye can go, but those hurricane and tropical storm winds will extend far beyond what the cone represents,” Guthrie said. “We will have warnings and storm surge warnings over the next few days.”

DeSantis said the power company will begin staging the linemen on Monday.

More than 1,000 National Guardsmen have been mobilized and can use high-water vehicles and aircraft for rescue and recovery efforts.

Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, and the NHC is warning residents that there is an increased risk of life-threatening storm surge, flooding from heavy rains and hurricane-force winds along parts of western Florida. coast and the Florida Panhandle starting as early as Tuesday.

Guthrie said the state is preparing its ports to make sure fuel is available throughout Florida during and after the storm.

Over the weekend, the state learned of fuel contamination at gas stations serviced by the Port of Tampa.

Storm Surge Forecast for Idalia.Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 counties to ensure communities have the resources they need before the storm’s arrival. FOX Weather

“We’re coordinating here (Emergency Operations Center) with everyone from petroleum retailers to the port itself to make sure disruptions won’t be widespread or prolonged and residents can have seamless access to fuel,” Guthrie said.

DeSantis said the contamination was “human error,” saying “They put diesel in a tank that should have been regular gas.”

If and when evacuation orders are given, they will come locally from county officials, not the state.

“A lot of people I talked to in Hurricane Ian didn’t know the difference between a FEMA flood zone and an evacuation zone,” Guthrie said. “If you need to know where your evacuation zone is.”

Florida evacuation zones can be found on county emergency management websites or through the local property assessor’s office.

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Where is Tropical Storm Idalia located?

Based on the latest advisory from the NHC, Tropical Storm Idalia is located about 80 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph with some higher gusts. Idalia is moving northeast at 3 mph.

IdaliaIdalia is forecast to become a hurricane in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. FOX Weather

The NHC said Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to meander near the Yucatan Strait through Sunday night.

Where will Tropical Storm Idalia go next?

The NHC said Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to begin moving north at a faster rate on Monday, which will bring the system across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Idalia is then expected to continue moving north or northeast through Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.

What watches/warnings are in effect for Tropical Storm Idalia?

The NHC issued a Storm Surge Watch for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass, which includes the Tampa Bay area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Florida’s Gulf coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast south of Englewood to Chokoloskee and for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Largartos, including Cozumel, in Mexico. In Cuba, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Pinar del Rio.

Storm Surge Warning for IdaliaA Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening flooding from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the next 48 hours. FOX Weather

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Isle of Youth, Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Warning is issued when strong winds form a tropical storm expected in the storm warning area within 36 hours.

These winds may be accompanied by storm surges, coastal flooding and/or river flooding.

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Rainfall effects from Tropical Storm Idalia

One of the main impacts from tropical cyclones is expected to be rainfall.

Forecast models show communities along Interstate 10 and west of Interstate 75 will see the highest rainfall totals.

Florida’s Apalachicola and Big Bend regions could receive the most precipitation, with 4-6″ of rain over the next few days. When groups practice in the same area, some communities may see higher rainfall totals.

Estimated rainfall from Tropical Storm IdaliaThe state is preparing its ports to ensure fuel is available throughout Florida during and after the storm. FOX Weather

The FOX Forecast Center says there is good news with the tropical moisture, many observing sites along the west coast have experienced a rainfall deficit in 2023.

Tampa recorded more than a foot of rain behind normal, and Naples was approaching a 20″ deficit.

Much-needed rain could improve and, for some communities, end the ongoing drought.

Counties such as Pinellas, Pasco and Citrus counties began offering sandbags over the weekend for residents to prepare for flooding in low-lying areas.

Wind impacts from Tropical Storm Idalia

Due to the uncertainty with the system’s strength, coastal residents along Florida’s Gulf Coast are being urged to prepare for the effects of the hurricane.

Tropical Storm IdaliaThe governor urged residents not to wait to prepare if they are outside the uncertain storm conditions. FOX Weather

Winds of at least 39 mph can knock down small branches and damage trees, which can affect power lines.

Once sustained winds reach at least 40 mph, local first responders and emergency management typically close access to the bridge in an effort to keep high-profile vehicles safe.

The last tropical cyclone to make landfall in Florida was Hurricane Nicole in November. Nicole was a Category 1 hurricane that made landfall near Vero Beach.

The National Center for Environmental Information estimates the damage from Nicole to be around $1 billion.

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