Independent voters in New Hampshire could destroy former president Donald Trump’s hopes of sealing his third GOP presidential bid on Tuesday, experts told The Post.
The state’s unaffiliated voters — at 344,335, far more than its Republicans or Democrats — pose a serious risk to its chances of a decisive win, GOP analyst Ryan Girdusky told The Post.
“In New Hampshire, independents can vote in any party’s primary,” Girdusky said. “Many of them are centre-left voters, so that’s where he’s afraid. If enough of them show up, they can help carry the state for Haley.”
He continued: “Maybe he doesn’t lose New Hampshire on Tuesday, but with a big influx of free agents he might be close to a tie. And as the de facto incumbent for the Republicans, that’s not a good trend for someone who claims the primaries are over.”
Trump’s claim that troublemakers among New Hampshire’s 261,254 registered Democrats will “infiltrate” the Republican primary is baseless, Girdusky said: by law, they cannot enter the contest.
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is appealing to New Hampshire’s middle-of-the-road independent voters, experts say. Getty Images
In October, New Hampshire officials reported that 3,950 voters who were previously registered as Democrats had switched to the Republican Party or “undeclared” status in time for them to cast ballots in the GOP primary — 1.5% of the state’s Democratic Party membership.
Trump has tried to woo his supporters in New Hampshire by claiming left-leaning partisans are plotting to sway Republican votes.
“Nikki Haley expects Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican party,” Trump told voters in Atkinson, NH, on Tuesday as he lashed out at the former UN ambassador who, according to polls, is in second place in the Granite State.
New Hampshire voters rallied for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis this week ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Aristide Economopoulos
“A bunch of people who are coming are not Republicans,” Trump claimed this week. “And it’s artificially increasing the number here, even though we’re still leading it by a lot.”
On Friday, New Hampshire Secretary of State David M. Scanlan predicted a record turnout of 322,000 in the Republican primary, extrapolated from the number of absentee ballot requests his office received.
The GOP turnout forecast was far higher than the state’s total of 267,768 registered Republicans — indicating that a large number of undeclared voters will choose to participate in the GOP contest.
Haley, who is campaigning in Rochester, NH this week, trails Trump by 16 points in a recent statewide poll. Aristide Economopoulos In the last Republican primary in New Hampshire, Trump won independent voters with 36% in a large field of 11 candidates, according to exit polls. Getty Images
With the Democratic primary in New Hampshire but contested in the face of DNC rules that put South Carolina first on its primary schedule, thousands of left-leaning voters could seize the opportunity to reject Trump.
That would be a sharp change from 2016.
In the last Republican primary in New Hampshire, Trump won independent voters with 36% in a large field of 11 candidates, according to exit polls.
“For Trump, it’s all about the narrative,” Girdusky said.
A key GOP poll in the Granite State — which takes into account independent crossover voters — showed Trump widening his lead over Haley after her victory in Iowa this week.
As of Saturday, he had a 16-point lead over second-place Haley, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Meanwhile, Saturday’s daily tracking poll from Suffolk University gave the former president a 17-point lead, with 53% of the vote, compared to Haley’s 36%, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing far behind with 7%.
The poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters — both registered Republicans and independents who plan to cast a Republican ballot — had a margin of error of 4.4%.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
