“Keys to the White House” are being circulated, predicting current President Biden with a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.
Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted almost every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula used to make predictions about the upcoming presidential election – and in many cases, it proved to be accurate.
Lichtman’s “Key to the White House” consists of 13 true-or-false questions that he believes create a strong indication of who will be named the winner on the fall ballot.
Each question is asked about two competing candidates; if “true” they are given a “key,” and if “false,” their competitors receive points.
So far, Biden holds five of the “locks,” while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch.
That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure the lead before November.
According to American University, where Lichtman teaches the “keys” are as follows: party mandate, competition, incumbent, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Lichtman gave Biden a slight edge because he is the incumbent and has implemented policy changes during his presidency. Annabelle Gordon/UPI/Shutterstock Trump has secured three locks due in part to the GOP’s majority in the US House of Representatives. Reuters
Incumbent Biden gives him an automatic point, which is key number 3.
Although Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualified to appear on Utah’s presidential election ballot, Biden has been given another “lock” because he does not appear to have any significant third party or independent primary challenges.
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Democrats were also given “keys” for having “real per capita economic growth during the same period or exceeding the average growth in the previous two terms,” as well as implementing policy changes during the presidency.
Trump, however, won the number one primary, which goes to whichever political party holds a majority in the House of Representatives – which went to the GOP.
Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted almost every presidential race since 1984. AFP via Getty Images
Painting Biden as lacking in charisma, Lichtman gave Trump a 12th key, and perhaps another if Biden fails to “achieve major success in foreign or military affairs.”
Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election, and after that Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
