The leading GOP presidential candidates set high expectations for next week’s Iowa caucuses, insisting they still have a chance against former President Donald Trump, who leads the field by more than 30 percentage points, according to polling averages.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are both fighting to become Trump’s primary alternative. DeSantis has vowed he’s in the race to win, while Haley has been more vague about his ultimate ambition.
Despite his low polling numbers, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also maintained he would be successful in the Jan. 15 contest, with spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin vowing to The Post that an outside candidate would “shock the system.”
The poll taken before the holidays averaged Trump at 51.3% support, followed by DeSantis at 18.6% and Haley at 16.1%.
Ramaswamy averaged just 5.9% support, followed by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who still averaged 3.7% support despite abandoning Iowa in favor of New Hampshire.
DeSantis Gambling
DeSantis, who has long been seen as Trump’s main rival, is most likely to do well in the caucuses.
He has poured most of his resources into Iowa by moving most of his staff to Des Moines, visiting all 99 counties in the state, and investing in door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.
On New Year’s Eve, the 45-year-old governor called in 2024 by asking supporters in West Des Moines to “work hard these two weeks and win the Iowa caucuses.”
DeSantis is largely betting his candidacy on a good showing in Iowa. AP
An unlikely victory would tarnish Trump’s aura of inevitability and could cause voters in New Hampshire and — especially — South Carolina to give DeSantis a second look in what his campaign argues is a “two-person” race.
“We believe that the people of Iowa will reward our approach on the night of January 15th,” a DeSantis representative told The Post in recent days.
Instead, an Iowa loss coupled with a distant fourth and third place finish in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively, could spell the end of the Floridian’s once-promising campaign.
Trump’s explosive offer
Meanwhile, Trump plans to end the race for the nomination before most voters get a chance to weigh in.
The 77-year-old’s campaign is urging surrogates to convince new caucus participants to come out through their “10 for Trump” program, hoping to widen the margin on Jan. 15.
Trump hopes to eliminate the race in Iowa. AP
The former president has campaigned less often in Iowa than his rivals, but has drawn larger crowds and more enthusiasm. Trump also continued to decline to attend the debate, choosing to participate in a January 10 Fox News town hall event in Des Moines instead of a CNN debate between Haley and DeSantis across town.
“Now everyone in Iowa and New Hampshire is racing for second place. How well they do in those two states will be seen in the South Carolina vote on February 24,” GOP strategist Dave Wilson told The Post.
Haley’s resurrection
The former South Carolina governor has tried to play down his standing, but his supporters have made it clear they want him to finish at least second in Iowa.
A strong showing by Haley could sway enough New Hampshire voters to favor her over Trump in the Granite State’s Jan. 23 primary, especially after several recent polls show her within striking distance of the former president there.
In December, Haley said he just needed a “good showing” in the Hawkeye State, but didn’t elaborate.
The 51-year-old’s main supporter, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, made expectations clearer last week, saying he was in line for a “powerful moment” in Iowa and a victory in his home state.
Supporters are hoping for a strong showing in Iowa for Nikki Haley. Reuters
Haley has drawn strong support from outside groups, and those supporters have descended on Iowa in recent months.
Americans for Prosperity Action, the Charles Koch-funded super PAC that supports Haley, has earmarked “thousands” of surrogates to knock on doors and has promised “an extensive mail, digital and TV campaign to supplement efforts on the ground.”
AFP Action spokesman Bill Riggs has called the race a “marathon, not a sprint” and said their effort could put Haley in “second or third” and still set her up well for New Hampshire, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday March 5.
Haley’s camp has outspent every other competitor in ad spending, according to data from AdImpact.
SFA Fund Inc. — the super PAC supporting Haley — has spent $27 million in Iowa, the most of any advocacy organization. His supporters also had the largest spending total at $31 million, $300,000 more than pro-DeSantis spending.
The only thing going against Haley is her own mouth, after she told New Hampshire voters last week that they “fixed” the Iowa outcome.
“To tell that to New Hampshire voters while Iowans are still trying to make up their minds is a real cut to the Iowa caucuses,” Wilson argued. “This is the 2024 presidential race. Every word you say counts.”
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
