In the past week alone, Israel has killed a senior Hamas militant in an airstrike in Beirut, Hezbollah has fired a barrage of rockets into Israel, the US has killed a militia commander in Baghdad and Iran-backed rebels in Yemen have traded with America. Navy.
Each strike and counter-attack increases the risk of an already disastrous war in Gaza spilling over into the rest of the region.
And in the decades-long stalemate pitting the US and Israel against Iran and allied militant groups, either side could choose all-out war over losing face.
Divisions within each camp add another layer of uncertainty: Hamas may hope its attack on October 7 will drag its allies into a wider war with Israel. Israelis are increasingly talking about the need to change the equation in Lebanon, even as the US aims to contain the conflict.
As interconnected chess games become more complex, the potential for miscalculation increases.
Smoke billows from the Gaza Strip as seen from the Israeli border in southern Israel, on January 7, 2024. ABIR SULTAN/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
GAZA IS GROUND ZERO
Hamas said the October 7 attack that triggered the war in Gaza was a purely Palestinian act of resistance against Israel’s decades-long occupation of Palestine. There is no evidence that Iran, Hezbollah or other allied groups played a direct role or even knew about it in advance.
But when Israel responded by launching one of the deadliest military campaigns of the 21st century in Gaza, a besieged enclave home to 2.3 million Palestinians, the so-called Axis of Resistance — Iran and the militant groups it supports across the region — found it difficult to stay there. edges.
The Palestinian struggle has deep resonance throughout the region, and leaving Hamas alone to face Israel’s wrath would risk unraveling the military alliance Iran has built since the 1979 Islamic Revolution put it on a collision course with the West.
Ships from the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (GRFCSG) and the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), and Hellenic Navy frigate HS Navarinon (F 461) sail in formation in the Mediterranean Sea, Dec. 31. 2023. MC3 Maxwell Orlosky
“They don’t want war, but at the same time they don’t want to let Israel continue to attack without revenge,” said Qassim Qassir, a Hezbollah expert from Lebanon.
“Something big has to happen, without going to war, so that Israel and America are convinced that there is no way forward,” he said.
HIZBOLLAH CALM THE NEEDLE
Of all Iran’s regional proxies, Hezbollah faces the greatest dilemma.
If it tolerates Israeli attacks, such as the one in Beirut that killed the deputy political leader of Hamas, it risks being seen as a weak or unreliable ally. But if it sparks an all-out war, Israel has threatened to destroy Lebanon, which is already mired in a severe economic crisis. Even Hezbollah supporters may see that as too heavy a price to pay for a Palestinian ally.
Jamaa Islamiya (Islamic group) gunmen carry the body of their friend Saeid al-Bashashi during his funeral procession in the southern port city of Sidon, Lebanon, on January 5, 2024. AP
Hezbollah has carried out attacks along the border almost every day since the war in Gaza broke out, with the express aim of tying up some Israeli troops. Israel has returned fire, but each side appears to be carefully calibrating its actions to limit the intensity.
Hezbollah’s attack of at least 40 rockets fired at Israeli military bases on Saturday sent a message without starting a war. Would 80 be a step too far? What if someone has been killed? How many casualties would a full attack require? The grim math doesn’t provide a clear answer.
And in the end, it may not be one attack that does it.
Israel is determined to see tens of thousands of its citizens return to communities near the border with Lebanon that were displaced under Hezbollah attacks nearly three months ago, and after October 7 it may no longer be able to tolerate Hezbollah’s armed presence just on the other side of the border.
Demonstrators took to the streets in protest after two explosions in Iran that killed nearly 100 people and injured many more at a memorial for supreme commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Iraq in 2020 by a US drone. ZUMAPRESS.com / MEGA
Israeli leaders have repeatedly threatened to use military force if Hezbollah does not respect a 2006 UN ceasefire that ordered the militant group to withdraw from the border.
“Both sides do not want war, but both sides believe it is inevitable,” said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. “Everyone in Israel thinks it’s just a matter of time until we have to change reality” so people can return to their homes, he said.
ANOTHER AMERICAN WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
The US deployed two carrier strike groups in the region in October. One was returning but was replaced by another warship. The deployment sent a clear warning to Iran and its allies against widening the conflict, but not all of them seem to have gotten the message.
Iran-backed militant groups in Syria and Iraq have launched dozens of rocket attacks on US bases. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked international shipping in the Red Sea, with possible consequences for the world economy. Iran says its allies acted on their own and not on orders from Tehran.
Lebanese Army Chief Joseph Aoun (R) meets with Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in Yarze on the eastern outskirts of Beirut on January 6. LEBANESE ARMY TWITTER ACCOUNT /AFP via Getty Images
The last thing most Americans want after two decades of costly campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan is another war in the Middle East.
But in recent weeks, the US military has killed a senior commander of an Iran-backed militia in Iraq and 10 Houthi rebels who tried to board a container ship, spilling blood that could have called for a response.
Washington has struggled to assemble a multi-national security force to protect Red Sea shipping. But it appears hesitant to attack the Houthis on the ground when they appear close to reaching a peace deal with Saudi Arabia after years of war.
An Israeli tank fires into southern Lebanon from a position in the Unpper Galillee in northern Israel on January 4, 2024. AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, Israeli officials say the window for its allies to get both Hezbollah and the Houthis to back down has closed.
HOW DOES THIS END?
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Regional tensions are likely to remain high as long as Israel continues its offensive in Gaza, which it says aims to destroy Hamas.
Many wondered if that would be possible, given the group’s deep roots in Palestinian society, and Israeli leaders themselves said it would take several more months.
The US, which has provided significant military and diplomatic support for the Israeli offensive, is widely seen as the only power capable of ending it.
Iran’s allies seem to believe Washington will intervene if its own costs become too high – hence attacks on US bases and international shipping.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock all returned to the region this week, with the aim of trying to curb the violence through diplomacy.
But the most important message may still be sent by rocket.
“America does not want an open war with Iran, and Iran does not want an open war with the United States,” said Ali Hamadeh, an analyst who writes for Lebanon’s An-Nahar newspaper. “Therefore, there are negotiations by fire.”
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
