The 2024 presidential election is unlike any other, say political strategists and pollsters.
Donald Trump’s impeachment and vote access, President Biden’s age and absence in New Hampshire, the economy, third-party candidates and dissatisfaction with both parties could lead to an “unexpected” result in November.
“Expect the unexpected. Consider all the old rules and history and throw them out the window,” Democrat John Zogby told The Post.
The 2024 primary season will officially begin on January 15th with the Iowa GOP caucus. Trump appears to have a big lead in his race in the Hawkeye state and nationally, according to polls, and is also edging out Biden in key swing states by significant margins.
But Trump’s lead could change depending on how he performs in early states, and if any other candidate can get close to the former president, according to strategists and pollsters.
“Trump is doing well because he’s not in charge right now, and in any case, the American people are just unhappy, bored, in a sour mood,” Zogby said, noting that consumer confidence is rising but has yet to translate into “good times feeling” under Biden.
Donald Trump speaks to guests at a campaign event on December 19, 2023 in Waterloo, Iowa. Getty Images
Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley has come closest to Trump in the polls, coming within single digits in New Hampshire. But the backlash he received after failing to cite slavery as the cause of the Civil War could show just how volatile the race is.
“We’ll see if that’s a blip … or if it’s going to be a campaign-defining moment,” Henry Olsen, a veteran political analyst and senior fellow at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy, told The Post.
A CNN debate between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley five days before the Iowa caucuses could also “go a long way in determining” who the first-time voters in the state will be, he added.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon predicted that Haley still “has a chance to upstage Trump.”
“It will be more difficult for the president to beat Haley than it will be for him to beat Trump,” he added.
Nikki Haley addresses a crowd during a campaign stop at the Nevada Fairgrounds community building on December 18, 2023 in Nevada, Iowa Getty Images
In the general election, polls show 20-25% of voters say they don’t want to vote for Biden or Trump, and those voters “will be the ones who decide the election,” Olsen said.
Dissatisfaction with both parties could also lead to large voter turnouts for third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Kennedy in particular has polled as high as 26% in support and has attracted the attention of both Republicans and Democrats.
Trump’s court case schedule and whether he has been removed from more state votes could also affect his ability to defeat Biden.
“What happens if Trump gets one wrong?” Olsen said. “What happens if that happens first?”
Joe Biden speaks to the press before boarding Marine One on the south lawn of the White House on December 23, 2023. Getty Images
Both Trump and Biden, who are 77 and 81 respectively, have to deal with possible health problems. Polls show voters are more concerned about Biden’s health than the former president, but either could be open to possible health scares, Olsen said.
“You never know what’s under the body of a 77-year-old or 81-year-old man.”
Biden, who seems likely to be the Democratic nominee, may also be disinterested because of his competition.
He first had to deal with New Hampshire, where a disagreement between the DNC and the state over the primary schedule kept him off the ballot.
Democratic rival Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) is campaigning hard in the nation’s first primary state in an effort to gain traction against the incumbent, but a write-in campaign is underway to save Biden from embarrassment on Jan. 23.
“There is the potential that an unknown person like Dean Phillips could embarrass Joe Biden, just as Eugene McCarthy embarrass LBJ in 1968,” Zogby said. (Lyndon B. Johnson, who was the incumbent at the time, failed to register for the New Hampshire ballot)
Olsen emphasized that for Biden, it was about the margin of victory.
“How many people would just vote for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson to cast a protest vote? Biden won’t lose in the primary… but what happens if Biden only gets 60% in the Michigan primary?”
The economy will be a big factor for Biden to be re-elected, Bannon told The Post.
“Economists are talking about the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. If that soft landing really works, I think that’s going to be a big boost for Biden’s election campaign.”
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
