With a little more than seven weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, the GOP presidential field has narrowed significantly after former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) suspended their campaigns.
When the field is consolidated, some candidates will benefit more than others.
The latest analysis from RacetotheWH uses algorithms and second-choice voting data to project where voters may turn after the No. 1 they are out.
“[Nikki] Haley was the biggest beneficiary but [Ron] DeSantis is pretty close behind,” RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips told The Post about the impact caused by Pence and DeSantis leaving the race.
Here’s a look at where orphan support could go based on data shared with The Post.
The 2024 Republican field appears to be shrinking faster than the 2016 GOP contest. Getty Images Donald Trump is far ahead of his rivals in all polls. AP
Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump is the main escapee in the GOP race.
Because of that and the fact that many partisan voters appear to be looking for an alternative to the 77-year-old, Trump’s gains over Scott and Pence are projected to be smaller than some of his rivals.
Trump’s average is 47% in Iowa, 45.7% in New Hampshire, 49.3% in South Carolina, and 59.4% nationally, according to aggregate RealClearPolitics polls.
From Pence, Trump is estimated to have gained 0.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.4 percentage points nationally. In New Hampshire, Pence’s dropout had no effect on the 45th president’s support, according to RacetotheWH.
From Scott, Trump is set to gain 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.3 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.2 percentage points nationally.
The biggest chance for a Trump boost will come from the dropout DeSantis, with a projected gain of 4.2 percentage points in Iowa, 2.8 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.8 percentage points in South Carolina, and 5.2 percentage points nationally.
Ron DeSantis thinks that Donald Trump will face electability problems in the general election. AFP via Getty Images
Ron DeSantis
DeSantis averaged 17.3% in Iowa, 7.7% in New Hampshire, 10.5% in South Carolina, and 14% nationally, according to RCP.
Of Pence, DeSantis is projected to accrue 0.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.4 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.7 percentage points nationally.
From Scott, the Sunshine State governor is set to take 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 1.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.4 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.4 percentage points nationally.
If Haley drops out, DeSantis is expected to gain 3.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.7 percentage points in South Carolina and 1.5 percentage points nationally.
Nikki Haley was running against Ron DeSantis for second place. Getty Images
Nikki Haley
Haley averaged 14.3% in Iowa, 18.7% in New Hampshire, 18.8% in South Carolina, and 10.6% nationally, according to the RCP aggregate.
Of Pence’s supporters, he is estimated to have gained 1.2 percentage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.2 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.7 percentage points nationally.
Haley also appeared to benefit the most from Scott’s departure, gaining 2.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.8 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.2 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.5 percentage points nationally.
Had DeSantis suspended her campaign, Haley would have been poised to gain 6.2 percentage points in Iowa, 3.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 4.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 2.5 percentage points nationally.
Vivek Ramaswamy Voters are generally very favorable to Donald Trump.Getty Images
Vivek Ramaswamy
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy averaged 5% in Iowa, 7% in New Hampshire, 3% in South Carolina and 4.7% nationally, per RCP.
Over Pence, Ramaswamy is projected to gain just 0.1 percentage point of additional support in New Hampshire, and 0.7 percentage points nationally, with no benefit in Iowa. Projections for South Carolina are not given.
From Scott, the youngest challenger in the race is set to take 1 percentage point in Iowa, 1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage point in South Carolina and 0.3 percentage point nationally.
Trump stands to gain the most if Ramaswamy leaves, with the former president projected to take 1.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.5 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.5 percentage points in South Carolina, and 1.4 percentage points nationally.
Chris Christie has positioned himself as Trump’s attack dog in the 2024 fight. Getty Images
Chris Christie
The former New Jersey governor averaged 4% in Iowa, 11.3% in New Hampshire — where he focused his campaign — 3% in South Carolina, and 2.4% nationally.
Over Pence, Christie gained 0.8 percentage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, and 0.5 percentage points nationally. South Carolina data not provided.
With Scott dropping out, Christie saw no benefit in Iowa and gained just 0.1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.3 percentage point in South Carolina and 0.3 percentage point nationally.
If Christie drops out, Haley will likely be the biggest benefactor, set to gain 0.4 percentage points in Iowa, 4.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage points in South Carolina, and 0.9 percentage points nationally.
Is Trump beatable?
Based on available polling data, even if Trump’s rivals come out and unite behind an alternative, the contenders will face a steep climb to dethrone the frontrunner.
Phillips believes that there are possible, if not impossible, paths for candidates to do just that.
“There is a group that is 100% Trump…There is one group, which is about 20% of the party, that is 100% no Trump — for the primary anyway. And then others are people who are very open to Trump,” he said.
Other factors such as Donald Trump’s momentum and alleged crimes could shake up the race. AP
“On paper, DeSantis is in a better position to do that,” Phillips added. “On paper, in direct polls, he’s doing better than Haley, but you can also say DeSantis has had his moments.”
Perhaps the best-case scenario for DeSantis or Haley would involve a three-way race with Trump and Ramaswamy, Phillips speculated.
“[If] Vivek is enough to take 10% support and probably keep Trump’s total below 50%, there is a scenario where he denies him some representation.”
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Source: thtrangdai.edu.vn/en/
